Growth plan for Skin at Peace, 3 Oct 2026
Scale spend. Hold CAC.
The plan: spend on tests every week, kill losers early, and protect one number, a target CAC of $26.40. Skin at Peace makes every batch fresh weekly and has 71 reviews on the Full System. That is the raw material for the ads.
- Target CAC
- $26.40
- New ads a week at peak
- 20
- Creators live by week six
- 10
- Test spend, six weeks
- $24,000
Contents
10 chapters, then the gates and every number’s source.
01 The number
One number to protect: $26.40 CAC on a $55 average order
The number to protect is a target CAC of $26.40. It sits below a $44.00 ceiling built from a $55 average order, a 40% margin and one repeat order. Spend scales only while CAC stays under that line. Subscribe & save 15% makes repeat orders possible, but that is untested.
Protect
Target CAC: $26.40 on a first purchase
Ceiling = average order × margin × (1 + repeat orders): $55 × 40% × (1 + 1) = $44.00. Guard line = 0.6 × $44.00 = $26.40. Across the ranges: $15.75 to $268.65.
Three moves
- Test one variable at a time, so every loser teaches something and dies in days.
- Cut any ad whose CAC runs past the $26.40 guard line before it eats more budget.
- Move budget to winners only after a cohort shows payback, not on first-order CAC alone.
- reviews shown next to The Full System
- 71
- Published
- off every order with Subscribe & save
- 15%
- Published
- year Skin at Peace was founded
- 2018
- Published
02 Variety
Made fresh weekly, 60-day life: every ad carries one fact
Each ad concept has to carry one reason to buy Skin at Peace: a product, a person or a promise from the site. Examples are Clean at $35.00, the Barrier-Restoring Acne Ritual at $90.00 or the Full System at $165.00. A concept that carries none gets cut.
| Reason to buy | Proof you already have | Ads (proposed) |
|---|---|---|
| Made fresh weekly | MICRO-BATCHED WEEKLY. MICROBIOME-FIRST. | 5 |
| A short routine | Four products. Three steps. Morning and night. | 4 |
| Preservative-free | PRESERVATIVE-FREE. MICROBIOLOGIST FORMULATED. | 3 |
| A cleanser that doesn't strip | Removes makeup and buildup without stripping the barrier. | 3 |
| Formulated by a microbiologist and MD | Formulated by a microbiologist and MD | 1 |
| Subscribe and save | SUBSCRIBE & SAVE 15% | 1 |
| Reviews on the Acne Ritual | 5.0 · 16 reviews | 1 |
| Total | The ad concepts tab | 18 |
Each row is a reason to buy that the brand already has proof for. The count is how many of the ads carry it: a reason with a single ad is a bet, not a pattern, and the next batch of concepts moves toward the reasons that win.
03 Disturbances
Opened products can't be returned, so the risks start at week one
| Disturbance | Likelihood | Impact | Owner | Gate (proposed) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Opened products can't be returned, so a doubtful first buyer has no safety net | Med | Med | Your team | Return and complaint requests tracked weekly; pause creatives if they rise two weeks running |
| Two first-order offers (20% and 40%) confuse buyers and distort CAC | High | High | Your team | One offer live on every page before the first ad spends; no spend until it matches |
| Free shipping starts at $75 and the average order is $55, so cart size may cap payback | High | Med | Both | Average order tracked daily; if it stays under $55, ceiling and guard line are reworked |
| A creator says something the brand can't back, such as a health claim | Med | High | Me | Every script checked against the claims sheet before posting; no unchecked video goes live |
| Creators arrive slower than two a week, so videos lag the plan | Med | Med | Me | Creators live compared with the ramp each week; if behind by two, tests shrink to match |
| Tracking misses subscription renewals, so CAC and payback look worse than they are | Med | High | Your team | Events for first order and renewals confirmed by the end of week one, before spend ramps |
| Few ads win, so spend on tests never turns into scaled spend | Med | High | Both | If no ad beats the $26.40 guard line by the end of week four, the angle changes |
Scores are my read from outside the company, re-scored in week one with your data. Each risk has one owner and one gate that can be checked with a number, so nobody has to argue about whether it happened.
04 The ceiling
The ceiling is $44.00; the guard line is $26.40
| Line | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Average order | $55 (range $30.00–$199.00) | Assumption Range from the site product prices (Published); the midpoint is a guess |
| Gross margin | 40% (range 35–45%) | Assumption Replace in week one |
| Repeat orders after the first | 1 (range 0.5–2) | Assumption Replace with cohort data in week one |
| Margin per customer, all orders | $44.00 | Calculated Average order × margin × (1 + repeat orders) |
| Guard line for CAC | $26.40 | Calculated 0.6 × the margin per customer |
The math, with the assumed lines
Ceiling = average order × margin × (1 + repeat orders): $55 × 40% × (1 + 1) = $44.00. Guard line = 0.6 × $44.00 = $26.40. Across the ranges: $15.75 to $268.65.
Range across the assumptions: $16 to $269.
The site's offers are facts. The $55 average order, 40% margin and one repeat order are guesses. They set the $44.00 ceiling and $26.40 guard line. Week one replaces them with your real numbers.
The ceiling is a range, not one number: the most a new customer can cost before shipping and packaging, which I do not have. Replace the guessed lines with yours and every figure below recalculates.
05 Test ramp
Test ramp: $24,000 over six weeks, 12 to 20 ads each week
| Week | New ads × budget / ad (proposed) | Weekly test spend | Cumulative | Creators posting | CAC target (proposed) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 12 × $250 | $3,000 | $3,000 | 0 | $26 |
| 2 | 12 × $250 | $3,000 | $6,000 | 2 | $26 |
| 3 | 12–20 × $250 | $4,000 | $10,000 | 4 | $26 |
| 4 | 12–20 × $250 | $4,000 | $14,000 | 6 | $26 |
| 5 | 20 × $250 | $5,000 | $19,000 | 8 | $26 |
| 6 | 20 × $250 | $5,000 | $24,000 | 10 | $26 |
Six weeks, $24,000 of tests. Weeks 1 and 2 run 12 ads at $250 each, $3,000 a week. Weeks 3 and 4 run 12 to 20 ads, $4,000 a week. Weeks 5 and 6 run 20 ads, $5,000 a week. Losers die early; winners earn more.
The math. Week 1: 12 × $250 = $3,000; Week 2: 12 × $250 = $3,000; Week 3: 16 × $250 = $4,000; Week 4: 16 × $250 = $4,000; Week 5: 20 × $250 = $5,000; Week 6: 20 × $250 = $5,000. Total $24,000 (96 ads × $250). A range such as 12–20 counts as its midpoint.
Weeks one and two test what the brand already has, rewritten per reason to buy. From week three, creator videos enter paid only after they beat their own account median. A range of new ads counts as its midpoint in the spend column.
06 Volume
Eighty concepts would add $72,000, if the hit rate holds
Volume moves CAC because winners are found by testing. Twenty concepts yield two winners and $18,000 added a month; eighty yield eight winners and $72,000. Hit rate and spend per winner are assumptions.
| Concepts tested / month | Hit rate (assumed) | New winners / month | Spend each winner holds (assumed) | Added spend at target CAC |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 | 10% | 2 | $300 / day | $18,000 / month |
| 40 | 10% | 4 | $300 / day | $36,000 / month |
| 60 | 10% | 6 | $300 / day | $54,000 / month |
| 80 | 10% | 8 | $300 / day | $72,000 / month |
The math. 20 concepts × 10% = 2 winners × $300 × 30 days = $18,000 a month; 40 concepts × 10% = 4 winners × $300 × 30 days = $36,000 a month; 60 concepts × 10% = 6 winners × $300 × 30 days = $54,000 a month; 80 concepts × 10% = 8 winners × $300 × 30 days = $72,000 a month.
The hit rate and the spend each winner holds are placeholders. The first thirty days of tests replace them with real numbers, and the table is recalculated the same day.
07 Allocation
The $100,000 follows winners, not the four-product catalog
- Creative tests: new ads for Clean, Day, Night, Full System
- $45,000
- 45%
- Scaling winners that hold the $26.40 guard line
- $30,000
- 30%
- Creator pay and product seeding for the first ten
- $15,000
- 15%
- Landing pages and offer tests on the Full System
- $10,000
- 10%
Shares of the $100,000 budget (Proposed). Tests come first; scaling money moves only after an ad holds the guard line.
The math. 45% × $100,000 = $45,000; 30% × $100,000 = $30,000; 15% × $100,000 = $15,000; 10% × $100,000 = $10,000. Sum 100% = $100,000.
This split is a proposal. It moves toward scaling as winners prove out, and toward testing when fatigue shows.
08 Channels
Meta first: Clean at $35.00 needs volume to repay its CAC
| Channel | Open when (proposed) | Why wait |
|---|---|---|
| Meta | Week one, with the first twelve ads | Paid social is where creator videos get tested fastest against the $26.40 guard line. |
| TikTok | After a creator hook wins on Meta | The same creator videos can run there at no new production cost. |
| Email to first buyers | When first orders arrive and tracking is confirmed | Subscribe & save 15% and 30-day delivery depend on the second order. |
| Instagram Reels and YouTube Shorts | When the hook library holds a few proven videos | Reels and Shorts reuse winning creator videos with no new shoot. |
| Affiliate program | After your team signs off on the claims sheet | Your affiliate program pays 40% commission; creator terms must not clash with it. |
A channel opens when its condition is true, not when the calendar says so. Until then the budget stays where the CAC is earned.
09 Payback
With Subscribe & save 15%, payback is the real constraint
Payback is the real constraint. At CAC $15 the first order repays and leaves $29.00. At CAC $25 it takes repeat orders and leaves $19.00. At CAC $50 it never repays and leaves −$6.00; at CAC $60, −$16.00. Both mean stop. Subscribe & save 15% is where repeat orders must come from.
Cumulative margin per customer, order by order, before CAC: $22.00, $44.00.
| CAC (scenario) | First-order margin | Year-one margin | Left after CAC | Payback |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $15 | $22.00 | $44.00 | $29.00 | First order |
| $25 | $22.00 | $44.00 | $19.00 | After repeat orders |
| $50 | $22.00 | $44.00 | −$6.00 | Never: stop |
| $60 | $22.00 | $44.00 | −$16.00 | Never: stop |
The math. CAC $15: $44.00 − $15 = $29.00 left; pays back: First order; CAC $25: $44.00 − $25 = $19.00 left; pays back: After repeat orders; CAC $50: $44.00 − $50 = −$6.00 left; pays back: Never: stop; CAC $60: $44.00 − $60 = −$16.00 left; pays back: Never: stop.
Read each row left to right: the margin of the first purchase, the margin over the whole horizon, what is left after CAC, and the purchase on which the CAC is earned back. A scenario that never pays back is a stop, not a test.
10 Scope
Scope: creative and creators; the subscription checkout is yours
Covers
- Ad concepts, hooks and landing-page copy for Clean, Tone, Day, Night and the Full System
- Creator sourcing, briefs and pay terms for the first ten creators
- Weekly test reports with daily CAC and monthly cohort payback
- A claims sheet drawn from your own freshness and ingredient wording
Doesn’t
- Event tracking and checkout setup; I spec it, your team builds it
- Product, pricing and the first-order offer; those stay your decisions
- Formulation, safety and regulatory sign-off on any claim
- Fulfillment, returns handling and customer support
What this plan covers is what I can change inside the ad account and the creator program. Everything outside it is named on the right so nobody assumes it is handled.
Gates, written before spend, so stopping isn’t a negotiation.
| Day | Keep going if (proposed) | Stop or change if |
|---|---|---|
| Day 14 | Tracking confirmed, creators live match the ramp, and every test runs one variable | Tracking still missing or no creator live |
| Day 30 | At least one ad holds CAC at or under $26.40 for a full week on real spend | No ad under the $44.00 ceiling after four weeks of tests |
| Day 60 | Cohort payback shows repeat orders arriving, with CAC at or under $26.40 | Repeat orders do not arrive and CAC sits above $44.00 |
| Day 90 | Spend has scaled across the winners while blended CAC stays at or under $26.40 | Blended CAC above $44.00 for two weeks running |
Each gate is checked on its day with the numbers in the daily and weekly reports. If the stop condition is true, the spend stops and nothing renews until we talk.
What exists, what’s missing, and the order that’s forced.
| Piece | Exists today | Missing | Forced order |
|---|---|---|---|
| claims sheet | Site wording on made-fresh-weekly and 60-day life | One sheet creators read before filming | 1st |
| creators | A 40% commission affiliate program already runs | Creators for acne, rosacea and postpartum skin | 1st |
| creative | Five products, priced from $30.00 to $165.00 | Ad concepts and a hook library | 2nd |
| landing pages | 71 reviews on the Full System, $99.00 first-order price | Pages matching each ad, with one offer shown | 2nd |
| reporting | Review counts on each product page | Daily CAC and renewal tracking | Week 1 |
The order is forced on purpose: creative and creators come first because they are what moves CAC, and everything else waits for that data.
Every number, and where it came from.
| Figure | Where it came from | Type |
|---|---|---|
| 71 reviews shown next to The Full System | https://www.skinatpeace.com/collections/shop-now | Fact |
| 15% off every order with Subscribe & save | https://www.skinatpeace.com/collections/shop-now | Fact |
| 2018 year Skin at Peace was founded | https://www.skinatpeace.com/ | Fact |
| Product prices $30.00–$199.00 | product prices in the site product data (7 products), read 2026-10-03 | Fact |
| $55 average order · 40% margin · 1 repeat order | Placeholders, replaced in week one | Assumed |
| $26.40 target CAC | 0.6 of the $44.00 margin per customer | Calculated |
| $44.00 margin per customer | Price × (margin − discount), summed over the orders | Calculated |
| $24,000 of tests (96 ads × $250) | Danilo’s plan, matches Month one | Calculated |
| 0→10 creators in 6 weeks · 7 videos per creator a week | Danilo’s plan, matches Month one and the Creator engine | Proposed |
| $100,000 first budget split 45% / 30% / 15% / 10% | Danilo’s plan, re-set with the team in week one | Calculated |
| 10% hit rate · $300 a day per winner | Placeholders, replaced by the first 30 days of tests | Assumed |
| 303 creator videos a month at 10 creators | 10 creators × 7 videos a week × 52 ÷ 12 | Calculated |
| $5.74 per 1,000 views against a $1 target | Creator cost over the views the assumptions give | Calculated |
| $1,000 base pay · $50 bonus past 100,000 views | Danilo’s plan | Proposed |
| 1,500 median views · 4% breakout (10×) · 0.5% viral (750,000) | Placeholders, replaced by the first month of posts | Assumed |
| Pay bands $300–$600, $500–$1,000, $800–$1,500 | Danilo’s plan | Proposed |
Every figure on this page is listed here with where it came from. Fact means read on the site. Assumed and Proposed are Danilo’s own numbers, to be replaced in week one. Calculated is plain arithmetic on those, with the formula shown next to it.
Month one is where it starts.
Week one: I check tracking with your team, lock one first-order offer and the claims sheet, brief the first creators, and launch the first twelve ads on $3,000. By the end, you get the first daily CAC against $26.40.